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Darnes vs Al-Nasr — Premier League 2019

Darnes
Darnes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Nasr
Al-Nasr
11/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Darnes30%
×Draw33%
Al-Nasr37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darnes
0.85
Al-Nasr
0.97

Al-Nasr creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

creates per match

Darnes
0.81
Al-Nasr
1.28

allows per match

Darnes
0.65
Al-Nasr
0.90

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par
Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Al-Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Darnes or draw
63%
Darnes or Al-Nasr
67%
Draw or Al-Nasr
70%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+
10%
Al-Nasr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals
57%
Darnes 2+ goals
21%
Darnes 3+ goals
5%
Al-Nasr 1+ goals
62%
Al-Nasr 2+ goals
25%
Al-Nasr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)
45%
Al-Nasr (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Al-Nasr away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Al-Nasr defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al-Nasr attack 1.28 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Darnes scores more
30%
level
33%
Al-Nasr scores more
37%

Al-Nasr at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Darnes 1–1 Al-Nasr

Darnes and Al-Nasr drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 19, 2022.