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Darnes vs Al-Anwar — Premier League 2019

Darnes
Darnes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Anwar
Al-Anwar
2/8/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group C - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Darnes52%
×Draw30%
Al-Anwar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darnes
1.27
Al-Anwar
0.63

Darnes creates 102% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Darnes
0.81
Al-Anwar
0.61

allows per match

Darnes
0.65
Al-Anwar
1.72

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par
Al-Anwar+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Al-Anwar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Darnes or draw
82%
Darnes or Al-Anwar
70%
Draw or Al-Anwar
48%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+
24%
Al-Anwar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals
72%
Darnes 2+ goals
36%
Darnes 3+ goals
14%
Al-Anwar 1+ goals
47%
Al-Anwar 2+ goals
13%
Al-Anwar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)
74%
Al-Anwar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Al-Anwar away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Al-Anwar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Anwar attack 0.61 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Darnes scores more
52%
level
30%
Al-Anwar scores more
18%

Darnes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darnes vs Al-Anwar

Darnes and Al-Anwar drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 8, 2026.