Darmstadt 98 U19 1–1 Unterhaching U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unterhaching U19

N. Sauer 86'

L. Gabelunke 20'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1948%

×Draw23%

Unterhaching U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.41

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.84

Unterhaching U19

1.41

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

1.33

1.49

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

70%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Unterhaching U19

77%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

52%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

26%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

84%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

55%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

28%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

76%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

41%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.84

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

30%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Gabelunke

63'

A. Schreck← N. Baier

63'

L. Kaiser← T. Vrdoljak

74'

F. Lautenbacher← L. Gabelunke

78'

J. Gottmeier← D. Ajeti

81'

86'

86'

87'

87'

S. Dorfner← D. Girtler

Darmstadt

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Petrowsky

63'▲A. Schreck←▼N. Baier

63'▲L. Kaiser←▼T. Vrdoljak

81'▲N. Sauer←▼A. Arania

86'▲H. Held←▼V. Turudija

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

SchreckKaiserSauerHeldRodriguezTrägerBecker

Manager: M. Unterberger

74'▲F. Lautenbacher←▼L. Gabelunke

78'▲J. Gottmeier←▼D. Ajeti

87'▲G. Adu←▼E. Haxhosaj

87'▲S. Dorfner←▼D. Girtler

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

LautenbacherGottmeierAduDorfnerSchulerAmbachDressel

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Unterhaching U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 and Unterhaching U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: L. Gabelunke (20'), N. Sauer (86').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch in Darmstadt.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Unterhaching U19