Darmstadt 98 U19 0–2 Saarbrücken U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

F. Geißler 82'

L. Östlund 64'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21Rasenplatz 1 Dieburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1960%

×Draw19%

Saarbrücken U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.34

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.35

Saarbrücken U19

1.34

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

1.73

creates per match

1.19

1.49

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

79%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Saarbrücken U19

81%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

40%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

38%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

90%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

68%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

41%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

74%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

39%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.35

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

21%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

E. Metaj

64'

L. Östlund

67'

N. Baier← A. Toch

76'

D. Wolf← F. Phlepsen

76'

T. Weber← D. Cullmann

81'

D. Konstantinov← J. Klein

81'

A. Rhani← L. Weis

82'

F. Geißler

84'

A. Dos Santos Reis← A. Lazzano

86'

L. Vrban← P. Hamm

Darmstadt

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Leopold

67'▲N. Baier←▼A. Toch

76'▲D. Wolf←▼F. Phlepsen

81'▲D. Konstantinov←▼J. Klein

86'▲L. Vrban←▼P. Hamm

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

BaierWolfKonstantinovVrbanSamarelliKochRiemer

Manager: E. Melunovic

76'▲T. Weber←▼D. Cullmann

81'▲A. Rhani←▼L. Weis

84'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼A. Lazzano

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WeberRhaniReisDupré