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Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Darmstadt 98 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
CANC
11:00
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
4/17/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1930%
×Draw22%
Mainz 05 U1948%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darmstadt 98 U19
1.48
Mainz 05 U19
1.94

Mainz 05 U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 75 away

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19
1.73
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19
1.49
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw
52%
Darmstadt 98 U19 or Mainz 05 U19
78%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
70%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+
13%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals
77%
Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals
43%
Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals
19%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
86%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
58%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)
38%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more
30%
level
22%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
48%

Mainz 05 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Darmstadt 98 U19 host Mainz 05 U19

April 17, 2021: Darmstadt 98 U19 take on Mainz 05 U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Darmstadt 98 U19 host Mainz 05 U19 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.