Darmstadt 98 U19 2–1 Hessen Kassel U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

L. Kaiser 17'

J. Sesay 1'

M. Agyekum 90+2'

9/18/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Rasenplatz 1 Dieburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1982%

×Draw11%

Hessen Kassel U197%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

0.99

Darmstadt 98 U19

3.42

Hessen Kassel U19

0.99

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 245% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 10 away

1.73

creates per match

0.50

1.49

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

93%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

89%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

18%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

64%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

97%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

85%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

64%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

63%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

26%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

92%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.42

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

82%

level

11%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

7%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. Sesay

17'

L. Kaiser

46'

F. di Giglio← H. Eckhardt

58'

A. Toch← N. Beier

58'

L. Garcia← J. Schmincke

63'

M. Agyekum← F. Urbon

74'

F. Bindbeutel← T. Leinhos

87'

N. Baier← M. Borger

90'

D. Šumak← M. Riemer

90'

F. Phlepsen← T. Streller

90+2'

M. Agyekum

Darmstadt

Hessen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: G. Leopold

58'▲A. Toch←▼N. Beier

87'▲N. Baier←▼M. Borger

90'▲D. Šumak←▼M. Riemer

90'▲F. Phlepsen←▼T. Streller

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

TochBaierŠumakPhlepsenMakatounakisNadarogluVrban

Manager: A. Noja

46'▲F. di Giglio←▼H. Eckhardt

58'▲L. Garcia←▼J. Schmincke

63'▲M. Agyekum←▼F. Urbon

74'▲F. Bindbeutel←▼T. Leinhos

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

GiglioGarciaAgyekumBindbeutelGremlerFelmedenKalbfleisch

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Sesay (1'), L. Kaiser (17'), M. Agyekum (90+2').

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 Dieburg in Dieburg.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19