Darmstadt 98 U19 0–0 Greuther Fürth U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Greuther Fürth U19

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Rasenplatz 1 Dieburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1949%

×Draw22%

Greuther Fürth U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.52

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.02

Greuther Fürth U19

1.52

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

1.73

creates per match

1.54

1.49

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

71%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

78%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

51%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

28%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

87%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

60%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

33%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

78%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

45%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.02

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

49%

level

22%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

29%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

A. Krasniqi← N. Höhn

71'

M. Hirschmann← J. Hendricks

75'

N. Grimbs← L. Kuschka

77'

M. Feldmann← L. Kaiser

82'

A. Toch← M. Borger

86'

N. Beier← N. Baier

Darmstadt

Greuther

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Leopold

77'▲M. Feldmann←▼L. Kaiser

82'▲A. Toch←▼M. Borger

86'▲N. Beier←▼N. Baier

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

FeldmannTochBeierSamarelliŠumakPhlepsenLutz

Manager: M. Ried

64'▲A. Krasniqi←▼N. Höhn

71'▲M. Hirschmann←▼J. Hendricks

75'▲N. Grimbs←▼L. Kuschka

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

KrasniqiHirschmannGrimbsSimonFriesMichlRautinger