Darmstadt 98 U19 2–4 Eintracht Frankf U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Eintracht Frankf U19

A. Toch 30'

H. Held 19'

D. Starodid 90+3'

N. Werner 74'

A. Alaoui 42'

D. Maqkaj 22'

3/27/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1937%

×Draw22%

Eintracht Frankf U1941%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.88

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.77

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 74 away

1.73

creates per match

2.28

1.49

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

59%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

78%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

63%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

19%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

83%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

53%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

26%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

85%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

56%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

41%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

30'

42'

46'

59'

67'

L. Klappich← M. Träger

67'

D. Starodid← M. Afşar

67'

A. Bilgilisoy← E. Breir

74'

N. Werner

84'

S. Gegg← M. Zelic

90+3'

P. Hamm← A. Toch

90+3'

D. Starodid

Darmstadt

Eintracht

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Toch

▼

Zelic

Manager: D. Petrowsky

67'▲L. Klappich←▼M. Träger

84'▲S. Gegg←▼M. Zelic

90+3'▲P. Hamm←▼A. Toch

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

KlappichGeggHammBorgerRiemerSauerDrakos

Manager: D. Agovic

46'▲N. Werner←▼D. Maqkaj

59'▲L. Kleiner←▼N. Kovač

67'▲D. Starodid←▼M. Afşar

67'▲A. Bilgilisoy←▼E. Breir

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

WernerKleinerStarodidBilgilisoyGauer

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 27, 2023.

Goals: H. Held (19'), D. Maqkaj (22'), A. Toch (30'), A. Alaoui (42'), N. Werner (74'), D. Starodid (90+3').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Ziegelbusch in Darmstadt.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19