Darmstadt 98 U19 4–1 Bochum U19: Result & Stats

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bochum U19

M. Borger 78', 60'

A. Arania 76' (pen)

A. Toch 55'

Josue Santo 5' (pen)

5/24/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 5Sportplatz Roßdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1934%

×Draw22%

Bochum U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchBochum U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.83

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.60

Bochum U19

1.83

Bochum U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

1.73

creates per match

2.17

1.49

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Bochum U19

2.17

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Bochum U19

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

57%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Bochum U19

78%

Draw or Bochum U19

66%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

16%

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

80%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

47%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

22%

Bochum U19 1+ goals

84%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

54%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Bochum U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bochum U19 attack 2.17 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

34%

level

22%

Bochum U19 scores more

43%

Bochum U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Josue SantoPenalty

46'

A. Schreck← H. Held

55'

A. Toch

60'

J. Peters← Josue Santo

60'

L. Erdelkamp← A. Golubytskij

60'

L. Koerdt← L. Bernsdorf

60'

R. Fischbach← H. Rölleke

60'

M. Borger

64'

G. Orr← V. Turudija

64'

P. Hamm← N. Sauer

73'

S. Gegg← M. Zelic

75'

D. Boafo← N. Böll

76'

A. AraniaPenalty

78'

M. Borger

Darmstadt

Bochum

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Petrowsky

46'▲A. Schreck←▼H. Held

64'▲G. Orr←▼V. Turudija

64'▲P. Hamm←▼N. Sauer

73'▲S. Gegg←▼M. Zelic

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

SchreckOrrHammGeggZimmer

Manager: H. Butscher

60'▲J. Peters←▼Josue Santo

60'▲L. Erdelkamp←▼A. Golubytskij

60'▲L. Koerdt←▼L. Bernsdorf

60'▲R. Fischbach←▼H. Rölleke

75'▲D. Boafo←▼N. Böll

Bochum U19 substitutes

PetersErdelkampKoerdtFischbachBoafoKotyrbaBah

U19 Bundesliga: Darmstadt 98 U19 4–1 Bochum U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 beat Bochum U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 24, 2023.

Goals: Josue Santo (5' pen), A. Toch (55'), M. Borger (60', 78'), A. Arania (76' pen).

The match was played at Sportplatz Roßdorf in Roßdorf.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Darmstadt 98 U19 4–1 Bochum U19