Darmstadt 98 U19 0–0 Astoria Walldorf U19

Darmstadt 98 U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

8/28/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Sportplatz Roßdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Darmstadt 98 U1951%

×Draw22%

Astoria Walldorf U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darmstadt 98 U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.38

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.95

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.38

Darmstadt 98 U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

1.49

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.73

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.49

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darmstadt 98 U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Darmstadt 98 U19 or draw

73%

Darmstadt 98 U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

78%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

49%

Winning margin

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

29%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

86%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

58%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

31%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

75%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

40%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darmstadt 98 U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.73 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

51%

level

22%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

27%

Darmstadt 98 U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Darmstadt 98 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

L. Baumert← M. Hütter

59'

M. Borger← A. Toch

62'

L. Kritter← L. Safranek

73'

A. Müller← P. Kohlstadt

86'

L. Marx← E. Bulut

86'

J. Thunert← S. Beikert

90+4'

L. Kamarianakis← L. Kaiser

Darmstadt

Astoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Petrowsky

59'▲M. Borger←▼A. Toch

90+4'▲L. Kamarianakis←▼L. Kaiser

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

BorgerKamarianakisHeldBeckerSauerVrdoljakTurudija

Manager: Roberto Pinto

46'▲L. Baumert←▼M. Hütter

62'▲L. Kritter←▼L. Safranek

73'▲A. Müller←▼P. Kohlstadt

86'▲L. Marx←▼E. Bulut

86'▲J. Thunert←▼S. Beikert

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

BaumertKritterMüllerMarxThunertJörnsRewerk

U19 Bundesliga: Darmstadt 98 U19 0–0 Astoria Walldorf U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 and Astoria Walldorf U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Roßdorf in Roßdorf.

Darmstadt 98 U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Darmstadt 98 U19 0–0 Astoria Walldorf U19