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Darlaston Town vs Avro — League #54 2026

Darlaston Town
Darlaston Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avro
Avro
1/14/2026League #54League #54

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darlaston Town16%
×Draw22%
Avro62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darlaston Town
0.80
Avro
1.84

Avro creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Darlaston Town
0.67
Avro
1.69

allows per match

Darlaston Town
2.00
Avro
0.94

finishing

Darlaston Town+0.00on par
Avro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darlaston Town ↓

Avro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Darlaston Town or draw
38%
Darlaston Town or Avro
78%
Draw or Avro
84%

Winning margin

Darlaston Town wins by 2+
5%
Avro wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Darlaston Town 1+ goals
55%
Darlaston Town 2+ goals
19%
Darlaston Town 3+ goals
5%
Avro 1+ goals
84%
Avro 2+ goals
55%
Avro 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Darlaston Town (draw refunded)
20%
Avro (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darlaston Town at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Avro away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darlaston Town attack 0.67 + Avro defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Avro attack 1.69 + Darlaston Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Darlaston Town scores more
16%
level
22%
Avro scores more
62%

Avro at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darlaston Town vs Avro

Darlaston Town beat Avro 1-0 in League #54 on January 14, 2026.