Daring Echternach 1–3 Union Mertert: Result & Stats

Daring Echternach

1 – 3

Union Mertert

10/18/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Breil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Daring Echternach19%

×Draw17%

Union Mertert64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daring EchternachExpected goals in this matchUnion Mertert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.77

Daring Echternach

1.47

Union Mertert

2.77

Union Mertert creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.33

4.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Daring Echternach

1.60

Union Mertert

1.33

allows per match

Daring Echternach

4.20

Union Mertert

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daring Echternach+0.00on par

Union Mertert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daring Echternach ↓

Union Mertert →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Daring Echternach or draw

36%

Daring Echternach or Union Mertert

83%

Draw or Union Mertert

81%

Winning margin

Daring Echternach wins by 2+

Union Mertert wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Daring Echternach 1+ goals

77%

Daring Echternach 2+ goals

43%

Daring Echternach 3+ goals

18%

Union Mertert 1+ goals

94%

Union Mertert 2+ goals

76%

Union Mertert 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Daring Echternach (draw refunded)

23%

Union Mertert (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daring Echternach at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Union Mertert away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daring Echternach attack 1.60 + Union Mertert defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Union Mertert attack 1.33 + Daring Echternach defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Daring Echternach scores more

19%

level

17%

Union Mertert scores more

64%

Union Mertert at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Union Mertert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff