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Daring Echternach vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — Cup 2020

Daring Echternach
Daring Echternach
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourgadvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daring Echternach6%
×Draw9%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg85%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daring Echternach
1.02
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.85

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 277% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Daring Echternach
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.50

allows per match

Daring Echternach
4.20
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.44

finishing

Daring Echternach+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daring Echternach ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Daring Echternach or draw
15%
Daring Echternach or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
91%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
94%

Winning margin

Daring Echternach wins by 2+
2%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

Daring Echternach 1+ goals
64%
Daring Echternach 2+ goals
27%
Daring Echternach 3+ goals
8%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
98%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
89%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Daring Echternach (draw refunded)
7%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daring Echternach at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daring Echternach attack 1.60 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 3.50 + Daring Echternach defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Daring Echternach scores more
6%
level
9%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
85%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Daring Echternach 0–7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Daring Echternach 7-0 in Cup on September 21, 2025.