Daring Echternach 3–2 Atert Bissen: Result & Stats

Daring Echternach

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Atert Bissen

10/2/2022

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Breil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daring Echternach13%

×Draw13%

Atert Bissen75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daring EchternachExpected goals in this matchAtert Bissen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

3.75

Daring Echternach

1.58

Atert Bissen

3.75

Atert Bissen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

3.29

4.20

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Daring Echternach

1.60

Atert Bissen

3.29

allows per match

Daring Echternach

4.20

Atert Bissen

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daring Echternach+0.00on par

Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daring Echternach ↓

Atert Bissen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Daring Echternach or draw

25%

Daring Echternach or Atert Bissen

87%

Draw or Atert Bissen

87%

Winning margin

Daring Echternach wins by 2+

Atert Bissen wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Daring Echternach 1+ goals

79%

Daring Echternach 2+ goals

47%

Daring Echternach 3+ goals

21%

Atert Bissen 1+ goals

97%

Atert Bissen 2+ goals

88%

Atert Bissen 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Daring Echternach (draw refunded)

14%

Atert Bissen (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daring Echternach at home — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daring Echternach attack 1.60 + Atert Bissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atert Bissen attack 3.29 + Daring Echternach defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Daring Echternach scores more

13%

level

13%

Atert Bissen scores more

75%

Atert Bissen at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff