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Alliance vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Alliance
Alliance
FT
1 – 2
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
9/15/2019Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2Nyamagana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alliance42%
×Draw28%
Kagera Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alliance
1.29
Kagera Sugar
1.06

Alliance creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Alliance
1.26
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Alliance
1.37
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Alliance+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alliance ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alliance or draw
69%
Alliance or Kagera Sugar
72%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
58%

Winning margin

Alliance wins by 2+
19%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alliance 1+ goals
72%
Alliance 2+ goals
37%
Alliance 3+ goals
14%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alliance (draw refunded)
58%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alliance at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alliance attack 1.26 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Alliance defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alliance scores more
42%
level
28%
Kagera Sugar scores more
31%

Alliance at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ligi kuu Bara: Alliance 1–2 Kagera Sugar

Kagera Sugar beat Alliance 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Nyamagana Stadium in Mwanza.