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Jedinstvo Bošnjace vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
CANC
00:00
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
4/25/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jedinstvo Bošnjace35%
×Draw24%
Budućnost Popovac41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.42
Budućnost Popovac
1.57

Budućnost Popovac creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.38
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.75
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Jedinstvo Bošnjace+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bošnjace ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bošnjace or draw
59%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace or Budućnost Popovac
76%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
65%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bošnjace wins by 2+
16%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bošnjace 1+ goals
76%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 2+ goals
41%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 3+ goals
17%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
79%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
46%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bošnjace (draw refunded)
46%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bošnjace at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace attack 1.38 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Jedinstvo Bošnjace defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jedinstvo Bošnjace scores more
35%
level
24%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
41%

Budućnost Popovac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Preview: Jedinstvo Bošnjace host Budućnost Popovac

April 25, 2020: Jedinstvo Bošnjace take on Budućnost Popovac in Srpska Liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.