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Darajani Gogo vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kajiado
Kajiado
4/19/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Darajani Gogo61%
×Draw22%
Kajiado17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darajani Gogo
1.93
Kajiado
0.92

Darajani Gogo creates 110% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

creates per match

Darajani Gogo
1.35
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Darajani Gogo
0.90
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw
83%
Darajani Gogo or Kajiado
78%
Draw or Kajiado
39%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
36%
Kajiado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
85%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
57%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
30%
Kajiado 1+ goals
60%
Kajiado 2+ goals
23%
Kajiado 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
78%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more
61%
level
22%
Kajiado scores more
17%

Darajani Gogo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Darajani Gogo 3–4 Kajiado

Kajiado beat Darajani Gogo 4-3 in Super League on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.