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Darıca Gençlerbirliği vs Antalyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor
12/20/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundDarıca 15 Temmuz Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği62%
×Draw20%
Antalyaspor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darıca Gençlerbirliği
2.12
Antalyaspor
1.04

Darıca Gençlerbirliği creates 104% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Darıca Gençlerbirliği
2.67
Antalyaspor
1.07

allows per match

Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.00
Antalyaspor
1.57

finishing

Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par
Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darıca Gençlerbirliği ↓

Antalyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Darıca Gençlerbirliği or draw
82%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği or Antalyaspor
80%
Draw or Antalyaspor
38%

Winning margin

Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
38%
Antalyaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
88%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
62%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
35%
Antalyaspor 1+ goals
65%
Antalyaspor 2+ goals
28%
Antalyaspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
78%
Antalyaspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darıca Gençlerbirliği at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 2.67 + Antalyaspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Antalyaspor attack 1.07 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
62%
level
20%
Antalyaspor scores more
18%

Darıca Gençlerbirliği at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Darıca Gençlerbirliği will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Darıca Gençlerbirliği 0–1 Antalyaspor

Antalyaspor beat Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 20, 2018.

The match was played at Darıca 15 Temmuz Stadyumu in Darıca.