Danubio 2–2 Wanderers: Result & Stats

Danubio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wanderers

S. Romero 51'

S. Fernandez 22'

R. Rivero 66' (pen)

E. Crucci 9'

3/16/2025

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Danubio39%

×Draw28%

Wanderers32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DanubioExpected goals in this matchWanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

Danubio

1.23

Wanderers

1.09

Danubio creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 81 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

0.99

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Danubio

1.18

Wanderers

1.19

allows per match

Danubio

0.99

Wanderers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Danubio+0.00on par

Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Danubio ↓

Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Danubio or draw

68%

Danubio or Wanderers

72%

Draw or Wanderers

61%

Winning margin

Danubio wins by 2+

17%

Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Danubio 1+ goals

71%

Danubio 2+ goals

35%

Danubio 3+ goals

13%

Wanderers 1+ goals

66%

Wanderers 2+ goals

30%

Wanderers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Danubio (draw refunded)

55%

Wanderers (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Danubio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

Wanderers away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Danubio attack 1.18 + Wanderers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wanderers attack 1.19 + Danubio defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Danubio scores more

39%

level

28%

Wanderers scores more

32%

Danubio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Danubio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

22'

48'

51'

60'

66'

R. RiveroPenalty

73'

C. Franco← R. Rivero

73'

N. Royon← E. Crucci

74'

Christian Franco

77'

A. Velazquez← J. Fernandez

77'

M. Peralta← I. Pintos

82'

F. Cerro← B. Veglio

82'

J. Rodriguez← M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

87'

E. Femia← L. Sanseviero

87'

F. Martinicorena← S. Fernandez

87'

M. Aguirregaray← A. Teuten

90+4'

Maximiliano Perg

90+3'

S. Nunez← S. Romero

Danubio

Wanderers

1

3

14

6

22

8

▼

Veglio

20

Lima

27

▼

Teuten

29

⚽

▼

Crucci

11

▼

Berrondo

7

⚽

▼

1

27

24

2

19

⚽

▼

Romero

7

▼

Pintos

5

Millan

6

Sosa

14

▼

Fernandez

11

▼

Sansevier

30

⚽

▼

Fernandez

77'▲A. Velazquez←▼J. Fernandez

77'▲M. Peralta←▼I. Pintos

87'▲E. Femia←▼L. Sanseviero

87'▲F. Martinicorena←▼S. Fernandez

90+3'▲S. Nunez←▼S. Romero

Danubio substitutes

12Rio4Risso23Gonzalez28Femia21Gonzalez20Martinicorena13Novick9Nunez17Velazquez16Peralta

73'▲C. Franco←▼R. Rivero

73'▲N. Royon←▼E. Crucci

82'▲F. Cerro←▼B. Veglio

82'▲J. Rodriguez←▼M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

87'▲M. Aguirregaray←▼A. Teuten

Wanderers substitutes

13Aguirregaray18Cerro25Silva9Franco23Garcia5Queiroz30Rodriguez15Royon10Viudez17Suarez

Primera División - Apertura: Danubio 2–2 Wanderers

Danubio and Wanderers drew 2-2 in Primera División - Apertura on March 16, 2025.

Goals: E. Crucci (9'), S. Fernandez (22'), S. Romero (51'), R. Rivero (66' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo in Montevideo.

Danubio vs Wanderers — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División - Apertura: Danubio 2–2 Wanderers