Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Danubio vs Huracan — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Danubio
Danubio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
6/8/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Danubio41%
×Draw37%
Huracan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Danubio
0.88
Huracan
0.56

Danubio creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Danubio
0.50
Huracan
0.63

allows per match

Danubio
0.50
Huracan
1.25

finishing

Danubio+0.00on par
Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Danubio ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Danubio or draw
78%
Danubio or Huracan
63%
Draw or Huracan
59%

Winning margin

Danubio wins by 2+
15%
Huracan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Danubio 1+ goals
59%
Danubio 2+ goals
22%
Danubio 3+ goals
6%
Huracan 1+ goals
43%
Huracan 2+ goals
11%
Huracan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Danubio (draw refunded)
65%
Huracan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Danubio at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Danubio attack 0.50 + Huracan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Huracan attack 0.63 + Danubio defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Danubio scores more
41%
level
37%
Huracan scores more
22%

Danubio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Danubio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Danubio 1–0 Huracan

Danubio beat Huracan 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.