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Dantong Hantong vs Yanbian Longding — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
11/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 2Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong22%
×Draw35%
Yanbian Longding44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
0.60
Yanbian Longding
0.98

Yanbian Longding creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Yanbian Longding
1.25

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Yanbian Longding
0.50

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–120%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
56%
Dantong Hantong or Yanbian Longding
65%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
78%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
5%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
45%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
12%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
2%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
62%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
26%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
33%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Yanbian Longding attack 1.25 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
22%
level
35%
Yanbian Longding scores more
44%

Yanbian Longding at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dantong Hantong vs Yanbian Longding

Dantong Hantong and Yanbian Longding drew 0-0 in League Two on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3 in Yancheng.