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Dantong Hantong vs Wuhan Three Towns — FA Cup 2019

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
11/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundJiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dantong Hantong19%
×Draw19%
Wuhan Three Towns62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns
2.40

Wuhan Three Towns creates 89% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.67
Wuhan Three Towns
2.13

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
2.67
Wuhan Three Towns
1.88

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
38%
Dantong Hantong or Wuhan Three Towns
81%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
81%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
8%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
72%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
36%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
14%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
91%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
69%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
24%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.67 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.13 + Dantong Hantong defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
19%
level
19%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
62%

Wuhan Three Towns at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dantong Hantong 1–5 Wuhan Three Towns

Wuhan Three Towns beat Dantong Hantong 5-1 in FA Cup on November 17, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.