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Dantong Hantong vs Tai'an Tiankuang — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tai'an Tiankuang
Tai'an Tiankuang
11/4/2022League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 2Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong37%
×Draw32%
Tai'an Tiankuang31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.01
Tai'an Tiankuang
0.89

Dantong Hantong creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Tai'an Tiankuang
1.07

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Tai'an Tiankuang
1.31

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
69%
Dantong Hantong or Tai'an Tiankuang
68%
Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang
63%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
14%
Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
64%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
27%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
8%
Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals
59%
Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals
22%
Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
55%
Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
37%
level
32%
Tai'an Tiankuang scores more
31%

Dantong Hantong at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dantong Hantong 1–0 Tai'an Tiankuang

Dantong Hantong beat Tai'an Tiankuang 1-0 in League Two on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2 in Yancheng.