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Dantong Hantong vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
7/31/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong44%
×Draw32%
Shangyu Pterosaur24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.10
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.72

Dantong Hantong creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
76%
Dantong Hantong or Shangyu Pterosaur
68%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
56%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
18%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
67%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
30%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
10%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
51%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
16%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
65%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
44%
level
32%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
24%

Dantong Hantong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dantong Hantong 2 – 1 Shangyu Pterosaur

Dantong Hantong beat Shangyu Pterosaur 2-1 in League Two on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1 in Yancheng.