Dantong Hantong 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng

Dantong Hantong

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jiangxi Liansheng

9/10/2023

League One · Round 22Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong44%

×Draw26%

Jiangxi Liansheng29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dantong HantongExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

Dantong Hantong

1.43

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.11

Dantong Hantong creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

1.27

creates per match

0.95

1.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dantong Hantong

1.27

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

allows per match

Dantong Hantong

1.27

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw

71%

Dantong Hantong or Jiangxi Liansheng

74%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

56%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

21%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

76%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

42%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

17%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

67%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

30%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

60%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more

44%

level

26%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

29%

Dantong Hantong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff