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Dantong Hantong vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
7/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong48%
×Draw29%
Hunan Billows FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.31
Hunan Billows FC
0.82

Dantong Hantong creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
77%
Dantong Hantong or Hunan Billows FC
71%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
52%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
23%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
73%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
38%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
14%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
56%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
20%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
67%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
48%
level
29%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
23%

Dantong Hantong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dantong Hantong 2–1 Hunan Billows FC

Dantong Hantong beat Hunan Billows FC 2-1 in League Two on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2 in Yancheng.