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Dantong Hantong vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
10/14/2023League OneLeague One · Round 26Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong40%
×Draw27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.33
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.20

Dantong Hantong creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
66%
Dantong Hantong or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
73%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
60%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
18%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
74%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
38%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
15%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
70%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
34%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
54%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
40%
level
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
34%

Dantong Hantong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dantong Hantong 2–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Dantong Hantong beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 in League One on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.