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Dantong Hantong vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
7/1/2023League OneLeague One · Round 12Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong36%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.37
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
62%
Dantong Hantong or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
75%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
64%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
16%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
75%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
40%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
16%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
76%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
48%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
36%
level
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
38%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dantong Hantong vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Dantong Hantong 4-1 in League One on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.