Dangjin Citizen vs Mokpo City — K3 League 2026
K3 League · Round 18
Dangjin Citizen are unbeaten in 6 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Dangjin Citizen40%
Mokpo City34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dangjin Citizen creates 10% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dangjin Citizen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dangjin Citizen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches
Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dangjin Citizen attack 1.41 + Mokpo City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44
Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Dangjin Citizen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Dangjin Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in 90% of Dangjin Citizen’s matches
- Mokpo City score first in only 25% of matches
- Dangjin Citizen score first in 60% of matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dangjin Citizen host Mokpo City on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 10:00. The match is part of the K3 League 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Dangjin Citizen host Mokpo City
July 25, 2026: Dangjin Citizen take on Mokpo City in K3 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.