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Dandora Love vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
1 – 3
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
4/16/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dandora Love31%
×Draw22%
Zoo Kericho47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.60
Zoo Kericho
2.01

Zoo Kericho creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
53%
Dandora Love or Zoo Kericho
78%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
69%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
15%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
80%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
47%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
22%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
87%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
59%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
40%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dandora Love scores more
31%
level
22%
Zoo Kericho scores more
47%

Zoo Kericho at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandora Love vs Zoo Kericho

Zoo Kericho beat Dandora Love 3-1 in Super League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.