Dandora Love vs Mwatate United

Dandora Love

CANC

00:00

Mwatate United

7/13/2022

Super League · Round 36Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love40%

×Draw23%

Mwatate United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandora LoveExpected goals in this matchMwatate United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.57

Dandora Love

1.63

Mwatate United

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

1.56

creates per match

0.77

2.38

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Dandora Love

1.56

Mwatate United

0.77

allows per match

Dandora Love

2.38

Mwatate United

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Mwatate United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Mwatate United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw

63%

Dandora Love or Mwatate United

77%

Draw or Mwatate United

60%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+

20%

Mwatate United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals

80%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

48%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

22%

Mwatate United 1+ goals

79%

Mwatate United 2+ goals

46%

Mwatate United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

52%

Mwatate United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Mwatate United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Mwatate United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mwatate United attack 0.77 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dandora Love scores more

40%

level

23%

Mwatate United scores more

37%

Dandora Love at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dandora Love will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff