Dandora Love 2–2 Murang'a SEAL: Result & Stats

Dandora Love

FT

2 – 2

Murang'a SEAL

12/4/2021

Super League · Round 6Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love30%

×Draw23%

Murang'a SEAL47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandora LoveExpected goals in this matchMurang'a SEAL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.75

Dandora Love

1.36

Murang'a SEAL

1.75

Murang'a SEAL creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 35 away

1.56

creates per match

1.11

2.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Dandora Love

1.56

Murang'a SEAL

1.11

allows per match

Dandora Love

2.38

Murang'a SEAL

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Murang'a SEAL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw

53%

Dandora Love or Murang'a SEAL

77%

Draw or Murang'a SEAL

70%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+

13%

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals

74%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

39%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

16%

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

83%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

52%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

39%

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Murang'a SEAL attack 1.11 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dandora Love scores more

30%

level

23%

Murang'a SEAL scores more

47%

Murang'a SEAL at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff