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Dandora Love vs Muhoroni Youth — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
0 – 0
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
11/7/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love35%
×Draw24%
Muhoroni Youth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.47
Muhoroni Youth
1.61

Muhoroni Youth creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Muhoroni Youth
0.84

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Muhoroni Youth
1.38

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
59%
Dandora Love or Muhoroni Youth
76%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
65%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
16%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
77%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
43%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
18%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
80%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
48%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
46%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.84 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dandora Love scores more
35%
level
24%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
41%

Muhoroni Youth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandora Love vs Muhoroni Youth

Dandora Love and Muhoroni Youth drew 0-0 in Super League on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.