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Dandora Love vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
1 – 4
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
12/11/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love38%
×Draw24%
Mombasa Elite38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.59
Mombasa Elite
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
62%
Dandora Love or Mombasa Elite
76%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
62%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
19%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
80%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
47%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
21%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
79%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
47%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
50%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dandora Love scores more
38%
level
24%
Mombasa Elite scores more
38%

Dandora Love at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dandora Love will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dandora Love 1–4 Mombasa Elite

Mombasa Elite beat Dandora Love 4-1 in Super League on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.