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Dandora Love vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
1 – 5
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
5/27/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love33%
×Draw24%
Migori Youth43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.41
Migori Youth
1.65

Migori Youth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
57%
Dandora Love or Migori Youth
76%
Draw or Migori Youth
67%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
15%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
76%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
41%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
17%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
81%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
49%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
43%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dandora Love scores more
33%
level
24%
Migori Youth scores more
43%

Migori Youth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dandora Love 1–5 Migori Youth

Migori Youth beat Dandora Love 5-1 in Super League on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.