Dandora Love 3–2 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Dandora Love

FT

3 – 2

Kisumu All Stars

3/19/2022

Super League · Round 17Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love36%

×Draw24%

Kisumu All Stars41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandora LoveExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.64

Dandora Love

1.52

Kisumu All Stars

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 105 away

1.56

creates per match

0.89

2.38

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Dandora Love

1.56

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

allows per match

Dandora Love

2.38

Kisumu All Stars

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw

59%

Dandora Love or Kisumu All Stars

76%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

64%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+

17%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals

78%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

45%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

20%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

81%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

49%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

47%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dandora Love scores more

36%

level

24%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

41%

Kisumu All Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff