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Dandenong Thunder vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
FT
3 – 5
HT: 3 – 1
Moreland City
Moreland City
8/18/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dandenong Thunder60%
×Draw18%
Moreland City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong Thunder
2.57
Moreland City
1.52

Dandenong Thunder creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.76
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.74
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw
78%
Dandenong Thunder or Moreland City
82%
Draw or Moreland City
40%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
39%
Moreland City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
92%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
72%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
47%
Moreland City 1+ goals
78%
Moreland City 2+ goals
45%
Moreland City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
73%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.57

Moreland City attack 1.31 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more
60%
level
18%
Moreland City scores more
22%

Dandenong Thunder at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong Thunder vs Moreland City

Moreland City beat Dandenong Thunder 5-3 in Victoria NPL on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at George Andrews Reserve in Melbourne.