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Dandenong City vs St. Albans Saints — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
6/1/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 16Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dandenong City44%
×Draw23%
St. Albans Saints33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.79
St. Albans Saints
1.52

Dandenong City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
St. Albans Saints
1.07

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
St. Albans Saints
2.01

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
St. Albans Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

St. Albans Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
67%
Dandenong City or St. Albans Saints
77%
Draw or St. Albans Saints
56%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
24%
St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
83%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
53%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
26%
St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
78%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
45%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
57%
St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

St. Albans Saints away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + St. Albans Saints defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.79

St. Albans Saints attack 1.07 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dandenong City scores more
44%
level
23%
St. Albans Saints scores more
33%

Dandenong City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs St. Albans Saints

Dandenong City beat St. Albans Saints 2-0 in Victoria NPL on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.