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Dandenong City vs Preston Lions — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Preston Lions
Preston Lions
2/14/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 2Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dandenong City30%
×Draw24%
Preston Lions46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.35
Preston Lions
1.73

Preston Lions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Preston Lions
1.50

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Preston Lions
1.12

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Preston Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
54%
Dandenong City or Preston Lions
76%
Draw or Preston Lions
70%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
13%
Preston Lions wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
74%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
39%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
15%
Preston Lions 1+ goals
82%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
52%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
39%
Preston Lions (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Preston Lions defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Preston Lions attack 1.50 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dandenong City scores more
30%
level
24%
Preston Lions scores more
46%

Preston Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Dandenong City 2–2 Preston Lions

Dandenong City and Preston Lions drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.