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Dandenong City vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
0 – 1
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
3/1/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 3FrankHolohan Soccer Centre (Endeavour Hills)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong City45%
×Draw23%
Pascoe Vale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.72
Pascoe Vale
1.41

Dandenong City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Pascoe Vale
0.85

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Pascoe Vale
1.85

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
68%
Dandenong City or Pascoe Vale
77%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
55%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
24%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
82%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
51%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
25%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
76%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
41%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
59%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dandenong City scores more
45%
level
23%
Pascoe Vale scores more
32%

Dandenong City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Dandenong City 0–1 Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale beat Dandenong City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on March 1, 2019.

The match was played at FrankHolohan Soccer Centre (Endeavour Hills).