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Dandenong City vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
3 – 1
Northcote City
Northcote City
7/28/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong City53%
×Draw22%
Northcote City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.96
Northcote City
1.28

Dandenong City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 67 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
2.08
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

Dandenong City
0.85
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
75%
Dandenong City or Northcote City
78%
Draw or Northcote City
47%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
31%
Northcote City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
86%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
58%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
31%
Northcote City 1+ goals
72%
Northcote City 2+ goals
37%
Northcote City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
68%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 2.08 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.96

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Dandenong City defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dandenong City scores more
53%
level
22%
Northcote City scores more
25%

Dandenong City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs Northcote City

Dandenong City beat Northcote City 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.