Dandenong City 2–4 Manningham United Blues

Dandenong City

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Manningham United Blues

7/26/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 24Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong City55%

×Draw20%

Manningham United Blues25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong CityExpected goals in this matchManningham United Blues

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.56

Dandenong City

2.37

Manningham United Blues

1.56

Dandenong City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

1.15

1.97

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Dandenong City

1.58

Manningham United Blues

1.15

allows per match

Dandenong City

1.97

Manningham United Blues

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Manningham United Blues →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw

75%

Dandenong City or Manningham United Blues

80%

Draw or Manningham United Blues

45%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+

34%

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals

91%

Dandenong City 2+ goals

68%

Dandenong City 3+ goals

42%

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals

79%

Manningham United Blues 2+ goals

46%

Manningham United Blues 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)

69%

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Manningham United Blues defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.37

Manningham United Blues attack 1.15 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dandenong City scores more

55%

level

20%

Manningham United Blues scores more

25%

Dandenong City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff