Dandenong City 2–4 Hume City: Result & Stats

Dandenong City

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Hume City

7/12/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 22Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City33%

×Draw23%

Hume City44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dandenong CityExpected goals in this matchHume City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.83

Dandenong City

1.57

Hume City

1.83

Hume City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 86 away

1.58

creates per match

1.70

1.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Dandenong City

1.58

Hume City

1.70

allows per match

Dandenong City

1.97

Hume City

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par

Hume City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Hume City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw

56%

Dandenong City or Hume City

77%

Draw or Hume City

67%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+

16%

Hume City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals

79%

Dandenong City 2+ goals

46%

Dandenong City 3+ goals

21%

Hume City 1+ goals

84%

Hume City 2+ goals

54%

Hume City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)

43%

Hume City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Hume City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Hume City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hume City attack 1.70 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dandenong City scores more

33%

level

23%

Hume City scores more

44%

Hume City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff