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Dandenong City vs Bulleen Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
3 – 0
Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
5/5/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong City57%
×Draw22%
Bulleen Lions21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.89
Bulleen Lions
1.04

Dandenong City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
2.08
Bulleen Lions
1.24

allows per match

Dandenong City
0.85
Bulleen Lions
1.70

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Bulleen Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
79%
Dandenong City or Bulleen Lions
78%
Draw or Bulleen Lions
43%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
33%
Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
85%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
56%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
29%
Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
65%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
28%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
74%
Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 2.08 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Dandenong City defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dandenong City scores more
57%
level
22%
Bulleen Lions scores more
21%

Dandenong City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs Bulleen Lions

Dandenong City beat Bulleen Lions 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.