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Dandenong City vs Altona Magic — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
Preview
09:45
Altona Magic
Altona Magic
8/14/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 24
Big match
42%
Dandenong City
model favours
42%22%36%

Both teams score in 100% of Altona Magic’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City42%
×Draw22%
Altona Magic36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.86
Altona Magic
1.69

Dandenong City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Altona Magic
1.40

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Altona Magic
2.14

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Altona Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
64%
Dandenong City or Altona Magic
78%
Draw or Altona Magic
58%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
23%
Altona Magic wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
84%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
55%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
28%
Altona Magic 1+ goals
82%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
50%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
54%
Altona Magic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.86

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dandenong City scores more
42%
level
22%
Altona Magic scores more
36%

Dandenong City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dandenong City score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both teams score in 87% of Dandenong City’s matches
  • Altona Magic score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LDWLW
Magic
WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dandenong City vs Altona Magic — Match Preview

Dandenong City face Altona Magic on August 14, 2026 in this Victoria NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.