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Altona Magic vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Altona Magic
Altona Magic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
5/2/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Altona Magic38%
×Draw25%
Dandenong City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona Magic
1.44
Dandenong City
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 75 away

creates per match

Altona Magic
1.22
Dandenong City
1.35

allows per match

Altona Magic
1.49
Dandenong City
1.67

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw
63%
Altona Magic or Dandenong City
75%
Draw or Dandenong City
62%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+
18%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals
76%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
42%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
18%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
76%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
41%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)
51%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 87 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.22 + Dandenong City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dandenong City attack 1.35 + Altona Magic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altona Magic scores more
38%
level
25%
Dandenong City scores more
37%

Altona Magic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Altona Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altona Magic vs Dandenong City

Altona Magic beat Dandenong City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on May 2, 2026.