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Damissa vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Damissa
Damissa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JAK
JAK
5/6/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 15Stade N’Dali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Damissa51%
×Draw29%
JAK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damissa
1.31
JAK
0.71

Damissa creates 85% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 49 away

creates per match

Damissa
1.24
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Damissa
0.70
JAK
1.37

finishing

Damissa+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damissa ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Damissa or draw
80%
Damissa or JAK
71%
Draw or JAK
49%

Winning margin

Damissa wins by 2+
24%
JAK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Damissa 1+ goals
73%
Damissa 2+ goals
38%
Damissa 3+ goals
14%
JAK 1+ goals
51%
JAK 2+ goals
16%
JAK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Damissa (draw refunded)
72%
JAK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damissa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 107 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damissa attack 1.24 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

JAK attack 0.73 + Damissa defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Damissa scores more
51%
level
29%
JAK scores more
20%

Damissa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Damissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damissa 2 – 0 JAK

Damissa beat JAK 2-0 in Championnat National on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade N’Dali in N’Dali.