Damissa 1–2 Dynamo Unacob: Result & Stats

Damissa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Unacob

10/16/2024

Championnat National · Group A - 3Stade N’Dali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Damissa52%

×Draw28%

Dynamo Unacob21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DamissaExpected goals in this matchDynamo Unacob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.76

Damissa

1.38

Dynamo Unacob

0.76

Damissa creates 82% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 87 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

0.70

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Damissa

1.24

Dynamo Unacob

0.82

allows per match

Damissa

0.70

Dynamo Unacob

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damissa+0.00on par

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damissa ↓

Dynamo Unacob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Damissa or draw

79%

Damissa or Dynamo Unacob

72%

Draw or Dynamo Unacob

48%

Winning margin

Damissa wins by 2+

25%

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Damissa 1+ goals

75%

Damissa 2+ goals

40%

Damissa 3+ goals

16%

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals

53%

Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals

18%

Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Damissa (draw refunded)

71%

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damissa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 107 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damissa attack 1.24 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Damissa defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Damissa scores more

52%

level

28%

Dynamo Unacob scores more

21%

Damissa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Damissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff