Damissa 2–1 Dynamo Abomey: Result & Stats

Damissa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo Abomey

4/18/2026

Championnat National · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Damissa45%

×Draw30%

Dynamo Abomey25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DamissaExpected goals in this matchDynamo Abomey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.80

Damissa

1.19

Dynamo Abomey

0.80

Damissa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

0.91

0.70

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Damissa

1.24

Dynamo Abomey

0.91

allows per match

Damissa

0.70

Dynamo Abomey

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damissa+0.00on par

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damissa ↓

Dynamo Abomey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Damissa or draw

75%

Damissa or Dynamo Abomey

70%

Draw or Dynamo Abomey

55%

Winning margin

Damissa wins by 2+

20%

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Damissa 1+ goals

70%

Damissa 2+ goals

33%

Damissa 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals

55%

Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals

19%

Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Damissa (draw refunded)

65%

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damissa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 107 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damissa attack 1.24 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + Damissa defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Damissa scores more

45%

level

30%

Dynamo Abomey scores more

25%

Damissa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Damissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff