Damissa 4–1 Bani Gansè: Result & Stats

Damissa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bani Gansè

11/9/2024

Championnat National · Group A - 7Stade N’Dali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Damissa46%

×Draw31%

Bani Gansè23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DamissaExpected goals in this matchBani Gansè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.72

Damissa

1.16

Bani Gansè

0.72

Damissa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 74 away

1.24

creates per match

0.74

0.70

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Damissa

1.24

Bani Gansè

0.74

allows per match

Damissa

0.70

Bani Gansè

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damissa+0.00on par

Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damissa ↓

Bani Gansè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Damissa or draw

77%

Damissa or Bani Gansè

69%

Draw or Bani Gansè

54%

Winning margin

Damissa wins by 2+

20%

Bani Gansè wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Damissa 1+ goals

69%

Damissa 2+ goals

32%

Damissa 3+ goals

11%

Bani Gansè 1+ goals

51%

Bani Gansè 2+ goals

16%

Bani Gansè 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Damissa (draw refunded)

67%

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damissa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 107 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damissa attack 1.24 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Damissa defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Damissa scores more

46%

level

31%

Bani Gansè scores more

23%

Damissa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Damissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff